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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."